Seit ein paar Tagen hört man nur mehr Negativ-Meldungen zu Indien. Sie alle beruhen quasi auf einer einzigen Pressemeldung. Das Wirtschaftswachstum ist auf 5,3 Prozent gefallen und liegt damit so niedrig wie schon seit neun Jahren nicht. Und die Medien rund um den Globus hyperventilieren! Im Erfolgsverwöhnten Indien selbst wird das schon landläufig als Rezession bezeichnet. Im Jammern stehen die Inder den Österreichern um nichts nach!
Reden wir hier mal über die Wahrheit und nicht über die Realität!
In Indien arbeiten 90 Prozent der Bevölkerung im so genannten “unorganised sector”, also nicht im Anstellungsverhältnis mit einem Unternehmen, sondern sind meist als Mikro-Unternehmer selbstständig, und nicht steuerpflichtig. Wie viel diese vielen hundert Millionen Menschen wirklich erwirtschaften und ob/wie viel das zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt beiträgt, lässt sich nur schwer abschätzen
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. Ich habe wo gelesen es seien 60%, es könnten aber genauso gut 50% oder 70% sein.
Man geht davon aus, dass in Indien etwa 50 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung “schwarz” erwirtschaftet werden. Ich gehe, aus eigene Beobachtungen, mal davon aus, dass dies nicht nur im “unorganised sector” passiert.
Ich stelle an dieser Stelle das BSP/BIP als solches in Frage. Das BIP versteht sich als Indikator für wirtschaftliche Leistungsfähigkeit. Ich bezweifle aber dass es geeignet ist wenn es darum geht, (Wirtschafts-)Leistung zu messen. Seine große Schwäche baut auf der Tatsache auf, dass es nur den formellen, auf Marktpreisen basierenden Sektor, misst. So finden Schwarzarbeit, unbezahlte Tätigkeiten (Ehrenamt, Hausarbeit, Nachbarschaftshilfe), Subsistenzwirtschaft (Selbstversorgung mit Lebensmitteln und anderen Gütern) oder mit dem Wertschöpfungsprozess einhergehender Umweltschäden keine Berücksichtigung.
Ob jetzt Indien 9 oder 5 Prozent wächst, ist meiner Meinung nach – per se – ziemlich Wurscht. Nicht egal ist mir wiederum was die Finanzmärkte, Politiker, Wirtschaftsbosse, Medien und schlussendlich auch alle Bürger mit dieser Information anstellen. Sie werden nämlich hysterisch – ohne zu wissen wer diese Zahl wie berechnet hat
(Kommentar von Wolfgang Bergthaler)