Kommentar: Zur Lage der Nation

Seit einem guten halben Jahr kommt Indien nicht mehr aus den Negativ-Schlagzeilen. Neben den Vergewaltigungs-Horror-Geschichten beherrschen ernüchternde Meldungen die Wirtschaftsnachrichten.

Das Wachstum hat sich auf unter 5 Prozent abgekühlt (so wenig wie schon seit zehn Jahren nicht mehr), ein ausuferndes Budget-Defizit beeinträchtigt den Handlungsspielraum der Regierung, das Außenhandelsdefizit belastet die Rupie, die seit Mai von einem niedrigen Niveau nochmals um 8 Prozent eingebrochen ist. Die Inflation liegt noch immer knapp unter 10 Prozent. Die Industrie-Produktion stagniert und der Absatz von ganzen Branchen – wie der Automobil-Industrie – sind rückläufig.

Die Regierung wirkt dagegen noch immer wie gelähmt. Sie schafft es nicht Wachstums-Akzente setzen, um auch aus Eigennutz kommendes Jahr wieder gewählt zu werden.

Auch die Unternehmen scheinen die Parlaments-Wahlen abzuwarten. Sie hoffen auf eine klare Mehrheit, egal ob für Congress oder BJP. Diese halten aber mittlerweile die Wenigsten für wahrscheinlich. Man befürchtet Jahre des politischen Stillstands.

Ist die Wachstums-Story Indiens nun schon zu Ende, bevor sie richtig begonnen hat..?

Yes, they can!

Ich habe keine überzogenen Phantasien, sondern realistische Erwartungen an die größte Demokratie der Welt (mit allen Vor- & Nachteilen) und bin überzeugt, dass es sich aktuell nur um ein kurzfristiges Zwischentief handelt, Indiens wirtschaftliche und soziale Entwicklung sich aber wieder beschleunigt.

Zum einen nervt mich der eindimensionale Blick auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP). Von dieser einen Zahl lassen sich alle Analysten, Politiker, Manager, Bänker und Medien verrückt machen. Ich bin nicht der Einzige, der die Aussagekraft dieser Kennzahl von Grund auf bezweifelt. Für das BIP kann nur berücksichtigt werden, was von den offiziellen Stellen erfasst werden kann. In Indien läuft aber etwa die Hälfte der Wirtschaft in so genannten „informal markets“, die Kleinstunternehmer und -Händler, Cottage Industries, die kleinteilige Landwirtschaft und natürlich auch die florierende Schattenwirtschaft umfasst. Egal ob die Wirtschaft nun „offiziell“ boomt oder nicht: für den Großteil der Bevölkerung spielt das kaum einen Walzer. Die partizipieren so oder so nicht daran.

Natürlich werden in Wachstumsphasen neue Jobs geschaffen, aber in Wahrheit sind 5 Millionen Jobs mehr oder weniger auf eine Workforce von 500+ Millionen relativ unerheblich.

Dass Indiens Wirtschaft weiter wächst steht eigentlich außer Frage. Kapitalismus und Konsumerismus sind erst vor zwei Jahrzehnten nach Indien gekommen und breiten sich erst langsam auf alle Landesteile aus. Die Nachfrage nach Produkten aller Art für alle Gesellschaftsschichten ist daher enorm

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. Die breite Masse der Gesellschaft kauft aktuell ihren ersten Fernseher, ihr erstes Handy, den ersten Kühlschrank, das erste Fahrzeug, baut das erste Haus u.s.w. Dieser Hunger nach Konsum muss erstmals gestillt werden. Die fünf Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum, die wir aktuell haben, basiert auf diesem Konsum und stellt schon fast eine natürliche untere Wachstumsgrenze für die indische Volkswirtschaft da.

Auch im Bereich Industrie-Erneuerung und öffentliche Infrastruktur (Straße, Schiene, Häfen, Elektrizität, Wasser etc) gibt es einen enormen Aufholbedarf. Da liegt Indien teilweise Jahrzehnte zurück. Diese Investitionen können und werden nicht ausfallen, sondern sich maximal etwas nach hinten verschieben.

Die indische Politik ist keinesfalls so unfähig wie es uns die Massenmedien weiß machen wollen. Gerade die regierende Congress-Regierung hat viele langfristige Projekte initiiert, die für Indien game-changing sind. Dazu zählen Mega-Infrastuktur-Projekte wie der Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, wo auf fast 1.500 Kilometern nicht nur Weltklasse Infrastruktur gebaut wird, sondern auch 13 neue Städte und Industrie-Zentren auf der grünen Wiese entstehen sollen. Nicht zu unterschätzen sind auch der Ausbau der Breitband-Infrastruktur (Internet) für ganz Indien sowie das Ausrollen der Unique Identification Card (Aadhaar; UIDAI). All das sind langfristige Investitions-Projekte, die sich in den kommenden Jahren nicht nur amortisieren, sondern Indien in ein neues Zeitalter katapultieren können, sofern erfolgreich implementiert.

Genauso wie Indien aus der Krise 2008/2009 gestärkt hervorgegangen ist (siehe Artikel Die Finanz-Krise war das Beste was Indien passieren konnte), wird sich Indien auch in der aktuellen Schwächephase neu ausrichten, teilweise auch sein Geschäftsmodell ändern
. Indien kann sich relativ gut auf neue Situationen einstellen. Weil wo das Chaos Programm ist, kann eine globale Wirtschaftskrise dieses so flexible Volk nicht aus der Ruhe bringen.

Ich wünsche Indien für die nächsten Jahren jedenfalls politische Stabilität und Regierbarkeit. Egal ob Congress oder BJP, wichtig wäre eine klare Mehrheit nach der Wahl, die voraussichtlich im Mai 2014 statt finden. Dann mache ich mir um Indien keine Sorgen.

(Kommentar von Wolfgang Bergthaler)

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About the author

Wolfgang Bergthaler

Wolfgang Bergthaler ist seit 2004 mit Indien beruflich und privat eng verbunden. Als Entrepreneur, Berater und Blogger hat er Land und Wirtschaft von den spannendsten Perspektiven kennen gelernt.
Auf "Indische Wirtschaft" teilt er seine Erfahrungen, insbesondere zu den Themen IT Outsourcing, Tech Startups, Marketing und Vertrieb.