Je länger die Unsicherheiten an den Finanzmärkten anhalten, desto mehr Anleger flüchten aus Angst vor einer Geldentwertung oder eines Euro-Crash in Gold. Seit Ausbruch der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2009 hat sich der Goldpreis etwa verdoppelt. Viel wird dieser Tage in deutsch-sprachigen Medien über die Gold – Rallye geschrieben.
Was sich aber seit ein paar Jahren in Europa vollzieht, hat in Indien schon seit jeher Tradition: der Glaube an reale Werte in Form von physischen Gold. Das wird einem so richtig bewusst wenn man durch die Einkaufsstraßen jeder beliebigen Stadt Indiens spaziert. Juweliere und Goldschmiede reihen sich aneinander, die Läden gerammelt voll mit Kunden, interessiert an den gelben Schmuckstücken und kleinen Barren: Gerade jetzt – denn von Oktober bis März herrscht durch die Hochzeitssaison Hochbetrieb. Während wir derzeit in Europa unsere Christbäume schmücken, werden in Indien die Bräute entsprechend der indischen Tradition mit Gold-Schmuck dekoriert.
Gold(-Schmuck) zu schenken hat Tradition, Gold als Anlagevermögen zu kaufen ist eher neu, liegt aber jetzt voll im Trend. Banken bieten spezielle Finanzinstrumente, die es jedem Konsumenten ermöglichen am Gold-Boom mit zu naschen: So genannte „Gold-Loans“. Man leiht sich Geld um damit Gold (oder dessen Zertifikate) zu kaufen. Die Wette lautet also: Rendite auf Gold gegen Kreditzins. In den letzten Jahren ging die Wette auf. Wenn sich der Trend aber umkehren sollte stehen die konservativen Anleger vor dem finanziellen Super-Gau.
Heute ist Indien der weltweit größte Konsument an Gold, vor China. Indische Haushalte halten in Summe 10.000 Tonnen Gold – das sind 11% der weltweiten Bestände – und stellen eine Wert von etwa USD 950 Milliarden dar. Das entspricht etwa 50% des indischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP)
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. Indien verfügt aber über keine nennenswerten Goldvorkommen, muss es daher einführen
. Dementsprechend wirken sich die Importe negativ auf die (chronisch negative) Handelsbilanz aus und heizen durch den steigenden Goldpreis die Inflation im Land an (importierte Inflation).
Nicht nur die urbane neue Mittelklasse schwört auf das wertvolle Edelmetall. Für die „Base of the Pyramid“ spielt Gold als Wertanlage und -Aufbewahrung eine, relativ gesehen, noch wichtigere Rolle als für die Städter. Denn sie haben kein Bankkonto, leben in ärmlichen Verhältnissen und unsicheren Gegenden wie Elendsvierteln. Was ist also praktischer als seine ganzes Vermögen in Form von Gold als Schmuck am Körper zu tragen? Es mag für uns etwas grotesk erscheinen, wenn Frauen aus dem Slum oder im Dorf Halsketten, Ohrringe oder Nasenschmuck aus Gold tragen. Aber dort ist das Vermögen sicher aufbewahrt. Das Gold im Besitz der Armen macht einen beträchtlichen Anteil des Gesamtwertes aus.
Gibt der hohe Goldpreis nun zig Millionen Familien die Chance, sich aus der Armut heraus zu katapultieren, indem sie ihren Schmuck verkaufen und zu Geld machen? Eher nicht. Wer (sein) Gold verkauft, wird kulturell stigmatisiert. Dieser gesellschaftliche Druck ist selbst bei den Armen zu hoch, dass sie das wagen würden.
Thomas Seifert, Indien-Experte und Außenpolitikreporter der Presse, veröffentlichte im Herbst 2011 das “Schwarzbuch Gold” wo er die Gewinner und Verlierer im neuen Goldrausch ausforscht. Seine Recherchen führten ihn natürlich auch nach Indien. Mehr zum Buch finden Sie auf http://www.amazon.de/Schwarzbuch-Gold-Gewinner-Verlierer-Goldrausch/dp/3552061746