Wird, soll oder muss Indien in Zukunft Europa mit qualifizierten Arbeitskräften versorgen? Diese Frage stellen sich schon langsam die Arbeitsmarktexperten. Die Überalterung unserer Gesellschaft bedingt schon in diesem Jahrzehnt einen massiven Fachkräftemangel. Nach den Zahlen von Eurostat sind derzeit 28,8 Millionen EU-Bürger zwischen 60 und 64 Jahre alt und damit pensionsreif. Diese Zahl übersteigt nun erstmal jene Gruppe von Jugendlichen im Alter von 15 bis 19 Jahren. Die Lücke wird sich von derzeit 200.000 Personen auf 8,3 Millionen im Jahr 2030 erhöhen. Im Vergleich dazu wird im Jahr 2020 das Durchschnittsalter in Indien bei 29 Jahren liegen (37 Jahre in China, 45 in den USA, 47 in Europa und 48 Jahre in Japan).
EU-weit kippt der Arbeitsmarkt bereits jetzt (trotz Wirtschaftskrise), ab 2015 dürfte es aber zu drastischen Verschärfungen kommen. Mit dem Fachkräftemangel einhergehend, wird es zu einer massiven Schwächung des Standorts und der Wirtschaft in Europa kommen. Die EU versucht mit der Einführung der „Blue Card“ 2011 gegenzusteuern. Ziel ist die europaweite Öffnung des Arbeitsmarktes für Hochqualifizierte aus Drittstaaten.
Indien verfügt über jene Personal-Ressourcen, die in Europa fehlen. Der Zugriff auf indische Mitarbeiter kann in Zukunft ein entscheidender Wettbewerbsvorteil für Unternehmer sein.
Die indische Mittelklasse genießt beste Ausbildung auf internationalem Niveau. Indien hat weltweit eine der größten Studentenpopulation. Der tertiäre Bereich umfasst derzeit 17.000 Hochschulen und fast 250 Universitäten. Das Hauptinteresse der Studenten liegt auf Technik, Naturwissenschaften und Medizin. Jedes Jahr verlassen eine halbe Millionen Ingenieur die mehr als 1.500 technischen Hochschulen und drängen auf den Arbeitsmarkt.
Die indischen Top-Universitäten sind mittlerweile als Kaderschmieden international bekannt
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. Das „Indian Institute of Management“ (IIM) wird in einem Atemzug mit Yale oder Harvard genannt. Das Pendant im technischen Bereich sind die IITs (Indian Institute of Technology), wo in Summe 5.000 Studienplätze auf 300.000 qualifizierte Bewerber kommen. Zusätzlich gehen jährlich mehr als 150.000 Inder zum Studium ins Ausland. Viele bleiben für einige Jahre dort um Berufserfahrung zu sammeln. Ihr Anteil im Hi-Tech Bereich ist überproportional hoch – zum Beispiel sind 32 % der NASA Wissenschaftler Inder
Indien verfügt über auch die „most mobile workforce in the world“ (weltweit höchster Mobilitätsindex). 80% der Inder sind offen für einen neuen Job. Die Mobilität innerhalb Indiens ist sehr hoch. Einen Job mehrere hundert bis tausend Kilometer in einem anderen Bundesstaat anzunehmen ist selten ein Problem, auch wenn dort Sprache und Kultur anders sind.
Die größte Herausforderung für die Arbeitgeber in Indien sind die hohen Fluktuationsraten. Je nach Branche liegen diese zwischen 15% und 50%, am höchsten bei Call-Center Jobs und im Handel.
Dieses Jahr sollen etwa eine Million neue qualifizierte Jobs im organisierten Bereich geschaffen werden (97% der Jobs in Indien entfallen auf die informelle Wirtschaft). Die derzeitigen Boom-Branchen sind Gesundheitswesen, Tourismus & Freizeitwirtschaft, Bau & Infrastruktur sowie der „all-time favourite“ IT.
Die indische Regierung unternimmt viel um den universitären Bereich weiter auszubauen. Ab sofort sind auch ausländische Universitäten in Indien willkommen und deren Abschlüsse anerkannt (Indische Wirtschaft berichtete). Der Bildungsmarkt in Indien nimmt also noch weiter an Dynamik zu und wird qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte in noch höherer Qualität und Quantität hervorbringen.
Nun liegt es an den Politikern der EU und ihren Mitgliedsstaaten die entsprechenden Maßnahmen für den europäischen Arbeitsmarkt umzusetzen, damit Europa international nicht noch weiter zurückfällt. Sollte die Wirtschaft wieder anspringen (was wir alle hoffen) brauchen wir massiv qualifizierte Zuwanderer zur Stärkung unserer Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und zur Finanzierung unseres Sozialsystems.