In den letzten Tagen und Wochen erreichen uns aus Indien Schlagzeilen zu lediglich zwei Themen.
(1) Natürlich zur Wirtschaft: Zum einen wurde Indien innerhalb kürzester Zeit vom vorbildlichen Wachstumsmarkt zum Prügelknaben – bedingt durch Abwertung der Rupie, Herabstufung der Kreditwürdigkeit, die Abschwächung des Wirtschaftswachstums, hohe Inflation, stagnierende Börsen, Rückgang der Auslandsinvestitionen und natürlich Unfähigkeit der Politik.
(2) Aber auch abseits der Wirtschaft gibt es täglich Katastrophen-Meldungen – nämlich zum Wetter. Seit Anfang Juni zieht der Monsun wieder über den Sub-Kontinent und bringt den Menschen und der (Land)Wirtschaft den lang ersehnten Regen sowie Abkühlung. Aber das alljährliche Wetter-Spektakel bringt nicht nur Segen, sondern auch Verwüstung. Nach Angaben des indischen Innenministeriums kamen dieses Jahr schon mehr als 150 Menschen ums Leben, und hundert tausende seien (im Bundesstaat Assam) auf der Flucht. In anderen Teilen Indiens lässt der Regen in seiner Intensität noch zu wünschen übrig.
In einem subtropischen Land, in dem 60 Prozent der Bevölkerung von der Landwirtschaft leben, die Menschen unter Temperaturen bis zu 45 Grad leiden und die Wasserversorgung (Förderung, Speicherung und Transport) absolut ineffizient ist, ist der Monsun-Regen Lebensgrundlage für 1,2 Milliarden Inder
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. Indien bezieht 90 Prozent seiner Wasserversorgung aus Monsun-Niederschlägen!
Eine schwache Regenzeit kostet der Volkswirtschaft nicht nur das eine oder andere Prozent Wachstum und heizt die Inflation an. Da mehr als zwei Drittel der Inder direkt oder indirekt von der Landwirtschaft (am Existenz-Minimum) leben, spielt – meiner Meinung nach – der Niederschlag im Juni und Juli unmittelbar eine wesentlich wichtigere Rolle für das indische Volk als Auslandsinvestitionen (FDI), Ratings oder Börsenkurse.
Daher wünsche ich Indien einen erfolgreichen und ausgiebigen Monsun, mit möglichst wenig Zerstörung. Der Rest (siehe 1) ist lediglich Zugabe.
(Kommentar von Wolfgang Bergthaler)