In ihrem Report “Markt.Fokus.Asien” gibt die HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited einenÜberblick über verschiedene asiatische Märkte. “Die indische Rupie hat im Vergleich zum US-Dollar in kurzer Zeit deutlich abgewertet,” urteilt Francis Chung, Produktspezialist Asien / Aktien Asien-Pazifik, über Indien: “Das vergünstigt den indischen Markt für Dollar-Investoren. Aber auch die Bewertungen sind günstig.”
Der Vergleichsmaßstab der Analysten, der S&P/IFCI India Index, fiel im September auf US-Dollar-Basis um 6,66 Prozent. Auf Rupienbasis war der Rückgang mit 0,7 Prozent weitaus moderater. Die Differenz liegt am deutlichen Fall der Rupie um 5,9 Prozent im Verhältnis zum US-Dollar. Damit hat die indische Landeswährung in kurzer Zeit massiv nachgegeben: um 11,1 Prozent zwischen dem 1. August bis zum 22. September. Das vergünstigt den indischen Markt für Dollar-Investoren. Treibende Faktoren für die Rupien-Schwäche waren ein unerwartet hohes Handelsbilanzdefizit sowie die Sorgen über die Schuldenkrise in den USA und Europa. Das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis für die Rupie ist auf diesem Niveau günstig.
Das Hauptereignis im Berichtsmonat kam aus der Geld- bzw. Kreditpolitik: Die indische Notenbank hob die Repo-Rate erwartungsgemäß um 25 Basispunkte auf 8,25 Prozent an. Damit nähert sich der Zinserhöhungszyklus seinem Ende. Wir erwarten nun eine weitere Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte. Die Notenbank hält die Inflationssignale weiter im Auge, obwohl das Wirtschaftswachstum lokal und global nachlässt. Allerdings rechnen auch die Notenbanker damit, dass der Inflationsdruck gegen Ende des Wirtschaftsjahres (31. März 2012) nachlässt. Die Teuerungsrate liegt derzeit knapp unter zehn Prozent – die Notenbank erwartet einen Rückgang auf sieben Prozent per Ende März
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. Die Prognose für das Wirtschaftswachstum ließ sie mit acht Prozent unverändert. Die Analysten erwarten wie bisher ein BIP-Wachstum von 7,5 Prozent und eine Inflationsrate zwischen 7,5 und acht Prozent. Dabei dürfte die Inflation in den nächsten Monaten ihren Höhepunkt erreichen.
Ausblick: Zinsen sinken
In den vergangenen Quartalen hat Indien die Leitzinsen massiv erhöht und die Geldpolitik aggressiv verschärft
. Nun da die Weltwirtschaft nachlässt und die Inflation in Indien sinkt, eröffnet sich für die Notenbank ein großer Spielraum, um die Zinsen zu senken, wenn die Konjunktur sich verlangsamt – also, wenn das BIP unter sieben Prozent sinkt. Der Konsum vor allem in den ländlichen Gebieten dürfte kräftig bleiben und nachlassende Infrastrukturinvestitionen ausgleichen.
Letztere sollten in Zukunft jedoch wieder steigen: Die Regierung hat bereits einige positive Maßnahmen angestoßen. Die Bewertungen bleiben im Vergleich zu den vergangenen zehn Jahren attraktiv – im Vergleich zu den vergangenen fünf Jahren sogar sehr attraktiv. Die Wirtschaft und die Unternehmen sind viel stärker geworden. Während der letzten Finanzkrise 2008 hielten sich die Unternehmensgewinne sowie das BIP hierzulande am besten, und zwar gleichermaßen im Vergleich zu den Schwellenländern, zu den asiatischen Märkten und zu den Weltmärkten.