Der Sommer lässt heuer sehr zu wünschen übrig. Dafür bringen uns die Finanzmärkte regelmäßig zum Schwitzen. Wenn man Prof
. Franz Hörmann glauben darf (und ich bin schon ein richtiger „Fan“ von ihm und seinen Thesen), wird es das globale Finanz- und Wirtschaftssystem, in der derzeit existierenden Form, nicht mehr lange geben – weil es nämlich heuer noch kollabiert. Für mich ist das eine realistische Option. Ich freue mich auf Gemeinwohl-Ökonomie und demokratisches Geld (nachzulesen bei Christian Felber). Das soll kein Nachteil für Entrepreneurship sein. Durch Kooperation und offene Zusammenarbeit wird es ungeahnte Innovationsschübe geben. Aber um alternative Wirtschafts- & Gesellschaftssysteme einzuführen, muss das bestehende System wohl erst vollständig (sic!) an die Wand fahren.
Das wird jedenfalls Europa und die USA extrem hart treffen. Weil die Staaten pleite gehen, werden die Währung verliert/verschwinden, und damit auch die Menschen um ihr Erspartes kommen, viele ihre Jobs verlieren, das Sozialsystem kollabieren… Aus der aktuellen Finanzkrise wird wieder eine Wirtschaftskrise und daraus eine Gesellschaftskrise, wenn nicht sogar eine humanitäre Krise.
Die Lage scheint für die Industrieländer des Westens düster. Indien wird vergleichsweise gut dastehen. Hier 7 Gründe warum die Finanzkrise Indien nicht (sehr hart) betreffen wird:
- Nur 7% der Jobs sind im organisierten Bereich (als Angestellte in Unternehmen oder im öffentlichen Sektor). 93% der Inder arbeiten im „informal Sektor“ (Kleinstunternehmer, Händler, Landwirtschaft etc). Diese können werder ihren Job verlieren, noch um irgendwelche großen Sozialleistungen umfallen. Selbst wenn 100.000 Software-Ingenieure ihre Jobs verlieren, weil amerikanische Banken keine Software-Outsourcing Projekte vergeben, wird die Welt in Indien nicht untergehen.
- Konservativer Finanzsektor: die Kreditvergabe ist sehr konservativ, „innovative“ Finanzprodukte nicht erlaubt und die Politik der RBI (Reserve Bank of India) sehr restriktiv.
- Inder stehen auf solide Werte. Egal ob Zimmermädchen oder Software-Guru, jeder will/hat seine eigene Immobilie und den Rest in Gold. Ich würde gerne wissen wie hoch sind die Goldbestände in indischen Privatvermögen…
- Wenn schon Geld, dann Schwarzgeld. In Indien wird die Rechnung großteils ohne den Finanzminister gemacht. Nach Schätzungen befinden sich USD 1,4 Trillionen (fast so viel wie das indische BIP) indisches Schwarzgeld auf Schweizer Bankkonten – anonym versteht sich. Kein schlechter Notgroschen für schlechte Zeiten.
- Die indische Wirtschaft hängt kaum vom Export ab. Ein Binnenmarkt mit 1,2 Milliarden Konsumenten will täglich bedient werden, mit Produkten für den täglichen Bedarf (und etwas darüber hinaus). Hier braucht es keine künstlich stimulierte Nachfrage für sinnlose Produkte und Dienstleistungen wie im Westen.
- Indische Innovationskraft beruht darauf mit wenigen Ressourcen ein Maximum an Nutzen zu generieren (Jugaad). Keine verkehrte Eigenschaft für schlechte Zeiten.
- Sollte die amerikanische/europäische Wirtschaft wirklich crashen, kehren alle NRIs (Auslandsinder) wieder nach Indien zurück, weil sie in den USA ihre Jobs verlieren. Diese sind allesamt hervorragend ausgebildet, unternehmerisch und geschickt
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. Das sollte kein Nachteil für die indische Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft sein.
Um Indien mache ich mir keine Sorgen!
(Kommentar von Wolfgang Bergthaler)