In der aktuellen Ausgabe des “Economist” stellen die Analysten die Frage, ob Indien China in den nächsten Jahren als Wirtschaftsmacht einholen will. Denn immerhin deuten einige Zeichen darauf hin: Von Indiens BIP wird erwartet, dass es dieses Jahr um 8,5 Prozent wachsen wird – Tendenz steigend: In den nächsten Jahren soll es Indien auf 9 bis 10 Prozent bringen, während China bei acht Prozent herum dümpelt. Das soll Indien in den nächsten 20 bis 25 Jahren zur am schnellsten wachsenden Volkswirtschaft der Welt machen.
Grund zum Freudentaumel für Indophile? Pessimisten haben Zweifel: Chinas Volkswirtschaft ist vier mal so groß wie jene Indiens; und die Demokratie hat noch einige Hürden zu überwinden.
Da wäre etwa das Problem der Infrastruktur: Der Zustand der Straßen ist katastrophal – einem Bericht des österreichischen WirtschaftsBlatt zufolge werden für 30 Kilometer LKW-Transport teils drei bis vier Stunden benötigt. Grenzkontrollen zwischen den einzelnen Bundesstaaten kosten zusätzlich Zeit
. Auch die Energieknappheit ist ein Problem: Viele Unternehmen halten sich eigene Generatoren, um Ausfallsicherheit zu garantieren.
Zudem ist Bildung weiter ein Herausforderung: Die Alphabetisierungsrate unter Erwachsenen liegt in Indien bei nur 66 Prozent, in China bei 93 Prozent. Ferner fürchten Investoren in Indien dem Economist zufolge nach wie vor Terrorismus – 200 der 588 Bezirke sind von fanatischen Maoisten betroffen -, ebenso wie populistische Politiker und Korruption: Ein westlicher Banker wird zitiert, dass er sich in China wohler fühle als in Indien – die zentralistische Regierung Chinas ist leichter zu durchschauen als die chaotische und bürokratische indische Demokratie.
Dennoch: Die Chancen für Indien, den Drachen einzuholen stehen nicht schlecht. Denn gerade die Demokratie steht langfristig für Investorensicherheit – hier kann bei schlechter Regierungsperformance ein Regierunsgwechsel friedlich geschehen, ohne eine blutige Revolution. Zudem können Inder Handlungen setzen, ohne Konsequenzen durch die Regierung fürchten zu müssen.
Denn genau hier liegt die Stärke des Tigers: So schwach die Performance der Regierung teilweise auch ist, so innovativ sind die Unternehmer. Arcelor Mittal ist das größte Stahlunternehmen der Welt, Tata Motors hat Jaguar und Land Rover gekauft, Bollywood liebäugelt mit dem Hollywood-Studio MGM, Bharti Airtel – ein Telefonieanbieter mit 140 Millionen Kunden – wächst rapide in Afrika. Kurz: 45 Millionen Entrepreneure treiben Indiens Wirtschaft, während Chinas Wirtschaft staatsgetrieben ist.
Und diese punkten mit neuen Geschäftsmodellen, die sehr preissensitiv und auf den lokalen Markt zugeschnitten sind – denn Indiens Fokus liegt auf der Inlandsnachfrage, was das Land vor allem während der Wirtschaftskrise vor dem Domino-Effekt aus den USA schützte.
Dies gibt Indien eine ernsthafte Chance, China auf lange Sicht die Stirn bieten zu können – vorausgesetzt, die Straßen werden geflickt und es gibt nicht wieder Stromausfälle
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